MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised country’s cotton production downward at 28.50 million bales (480lb each) during the Marketing Year (MY) 2015-16) that begins from August 2015. The agency in earlier projected pegged 2015-16 output at 29 million bales.
The area was estimated at 11.80 million hectares for 2015-16, it said.
USDA said that during recent field travel to Gujarat, plants exhibited signs of moisture stress, wilting and stunted growth. Moreover, there was large variability in cotton plant development. Stunted growth should lead to a lower number of boll formations and reduced yields. The early sown cotton is at the flowering/boll development stage. The first picking for the area is expected to be delayed by two weeks.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall during the southwest monsoon (June – September) was 14 percent below the long period average.
Further USDA has projected domestic consumption slightly higher at 25.30 million bales versus last year, but revised down from 25.70 million bales projected during last report.
Cotton exports during 2015-16 likely at 4.7 million bales (6 million 170 kg bales/1 mmt) and reflects a decrease from the USDA previous forecast of 4.9 million bales due to expected sluggish demand.
The country exports more than 70 percent of cotton to Bangladesh. China and Vietnam were the other markets with seven percent export market share each during September. Trade sources expect exports to remain weak as prices remain subdued with large domestic and global carry-over stocks.
Country’s cotton imports projected lower at 800,000 bales (1 million 170 kg bales/174,000 mt). Mills may scale back imports of cotton to extra-long staple varieties once new crop Indian cotton can provide coverage on the supply side. That said, mills will continue to import for immediate requirements till new arrivals pick up. Currently, it is cheaper to import cotton than to procure domestically due to high interest rates for cotton storage and warehousing.
Imports of new crop from Pakistan and Australia, followed by cheaper African imports from Cameroon and Mali, and Pima imports from the United States constituted the bulk of September imports.
Cotton ending stocks for 2015-16 likely down at 11.79 lakh bales versus 12.91 lakh bales projected earlier.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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